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Status quo nationally, but new areas of concern emerge

Two weeks ago, we predicted that the late-summer decline in new COVID-19 cases would soon come to an end. Indeed, after two months of gradual improvement, new infections now appear to have stabilized around a still-high baseline of 40,000 per day nationally. Our forecast calls for more of the same at a national level. Kinsa data shows that illness transmission has remained relatively stable, indicating that we’re not likely to see big swings in new infections over the coming few weeks.

However, the national outlook belies regional differences. In particular, our data suggest that cases may rise in the near future in the following states: 

  • Arizona
  • Iowa 
  • Kansas
  • New Mexico
  • South Carolina

We are also paying close attention to a handful of sub-state areas with concerning transmission rates:

  • Michigan: Grand Rapids area
  • New York: Buffalo area
  • Texas: Austin & Houston areas