19 Flashing Beacons

Cases ebbed and flowed in various states throughout the summer, creating a relatively stable — although unacceptably high — national average of around 40,000 new daily cases. However, with daily infections recently reaching 70,000 per day, it is clear that the country has entered an alarming new stage of the pandemic. Unfortunately, our data indicate

Kinsa Launches COVID-19 Prediction Model

As we first saw in March, aggregate data from Kinsa’s network of smart thermometers can serve as an early warning system for COVID-19 spread. Since that time, even as social behaviors and policy measures have evolved, Kinsa’s illness data has continued to be an early indicator of community spread. Kinsa has published this aggregate illness

Status quo nationally, but new areas of concern emerge

Two weeks ago, we predicted that the late-summer decline in new COVID-19 cases would soon come to an end. Indeed, after two months of gradual improvement, new infections now appear to have stabilized around a still-high baseline of 40,000 per day nationally. Our forecast calls for more of the same at a national level. Kinsa

All eyes on college campuses as transmission ticks up

The average rate of illness transmission (Rt) across the country has begun to edge up over the past two weeks. With the cold and flu season on the horizon – and COVID-19 cases holding steady at a very high baseline – this trend is concerning. In Arkansas, where Kinsa’s Rt metric has been moderately elevated

Data urges caution in Arkansas

At a national level, Kinsa’s measure of illness transmission (Rt) is near 1, suggesting that COVID-19 case growth will remain relatively stable over the next few weeks. The current baseline of 40,000 new infections per day represents a dangerously high status quo as we head into the fall, when many experts fear that the start

Despite national case decline, Kinsa data show increasing transmission

The past few weeks have brought some optimism as daily COVID-19 case counts have trended downward at a national level. However, regional trends in Kinsa data show that illness transmission (Rt) is rising again in many parts of the country — particularly in the southeast and central Plains regions — suggesting that this downward trend

As Missouri schools consider reopening, Kinsa data signal trouble ahead

As summer inches towards fall, the general downward trend in virus transmission is beginning to slow, and in some cases, reverse. Several states in the southeastern U.S. are showing signs of a renewed increase in illness transmission.  Missouri tops our watch list this week. After a recent drop in confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state,

Kinsa Publishes Updates to Maps and Underlying Signal on HealthWeather.us

You may notice the data on our HealthWeather maps looks a bit different today — we’ve rolled out a sweeping set of changes to the maps, interface and underlying data, which we think will offer a clearer view of what’s happening with the spread of influenza-like illness, including COVID-19. Here’s what’s new: Improved County-Level Smoothing

Near-term COVID outlook improves after illness transmission slows in July

The start of summer brought with it a renewed surge in coronavirus cases, with daily new case counts climbing to a mid-July peak that was twice as bad as the initial spring wave. However, the latest national data shows a slight deceleration in cases over the past week. But is this just a temporary reprieve

Kinsa’s COVID-19 Predictions, One Month Out

On June 29, the New York Times published an op-ed exploring the few options available to detect viral outbreaks early, and highlighted Kinsa’s new illness measure—Atypical Transmission (Rt)—which we used to make some predictions about what might happen in a number of specific states. Today, in the interest of transparency, we revisit our month-old predictions